Wolf Creek prediction; Kong, Munich updates.

I'm tired right now and have more pressing things to be doing, so this will be very quick.

Wolf Creek advertises itself as one of those "based on true events" movies, which means it's actually not. "Based on a true story" is what you're looking for, those are real. Based on events mean if the director saw a bird take a crap on his windshield in the studio parking lot, and he put that in a movie where aliens invade the Earth and destroy all human life, it's still technically "based on true events". Give me a break.

This movie is based on not one, but what appears to be three different events that happened in Australia. Totally unrelated and happening in different locations at different times, and probably even those are different than what actually happened.

Estimated budget: $1,000,000

What's Working

• Someone figured out you can make a movie just with the money often found in Britney Spears couch.
  

What's Going Wrong

• Written and Directed by the same person. Unless you're one of a few elite people talented at both, this is never a good thing.
• The Writer/Director only has one previous credit to him, a short. How the hell does that happen?
• Based on multiple unrelated events patched together and sold as if it were one. Outright lies are bad, mmkay?
• Written by a neophyte.
• A horror movie released in between Christmas and New Years. Retarded. Simply retarded.
• Weak cast. Only one actor has significant experience, while two have a moderate amount, several more are making their debut in this movie.

Results

Profit. With a supposed budget of $1 million, it's already made back it's production costs after just 3 days, pulling in almost $14 million world-wide. It was never possible for this movie not to make a profit given it was produced on slave-labor wages. This is one of those rare occasions where a movie should fail, and fail badly, by all rights. Let this be a lesson to the major studio's however, sometimes when it comes to budgets, smaller is better.

Kong, Munich
After two full weeks, Kong is still fighting for it's life to stay on top of Narnia, a film that's been out a week longer and with a lot less hype. At $128 million domestic, it's still got a long way to go towards showing a profit here at home. Overseas plus domestic brings the total closer to $280 million, leaving the epic at least $120 million away from showing a profit. It may yet make it into the black, but if it does, it'll be by a short margin. This is a long way away from setting the record for biggest take ever, which Universal arrogantly claimed it would. That $280 million is a far cry from the $1.8 billion that Titanic ended with.
Munich is not yet in wide release, showing in only 532 theaters. It's 5-day take so far is around $7 million domestic, with a production budget running about ten times that number. That's pretty pathetic for the first 5 days, but it's not unexpected with that few theaters showing it. Yet, at the same time, with those kinds of numbers, it's not exactly enticing more theaters to show it either. My prediction stands, it's a flop. I'll put in one more update on it in the next week or two when it opens wider.

Quickies
Memoirs of a Geisha: More like Memoirs of a Flop. $85m? Should have bought a jet or something.
Aeon Flux: Theron goes from Oscar to flop twice in the same year. Incredibly hot girl that can do splits no substitute for a good story.
North Country: Only mentioned because Theron was also the star of this, and that's not the only thing they have in common. Cost: $35m, Revenue: $18.1, Profit: $-25.95m. They both bombed.

Next time I'll do Hostel and Bloodrayne (that should be amusing), and later Munich, since I see it's expanding to 1800 theaters on the 6th of January.