Munich predictions.

Estimated budget: $75,000,000

The script was adapted from a book by George Jones by Tony Kushner and Eric Roth. Kushner is a well regarded playwright who adapted his own play into the highly acclaimed "Angels in America" mini-series, and may be the one saving grace of the project. Though his lack of experience -- he has only 3 screen credits to his name -- raises questions about his ability to adapt others material.

Eric Roth's big credit comes from penning the script for Forest Gump, and that too was an adaptation, though a very well done piece. But the fact it's an adaptation means that at best, you can expect the best screenplay possible from the existing material, and that can't do much if the source fails to impress, or translates badly to the screen format.

The large budget will mean the film must take in somewhere in the neighborhood of $150 million to break even. Israeli discontent with the accuracy of the film (as not surprisingly the book it was based on) could badly curtail overseas take, and I don't see this film being much of a domestic hit.

What's Working

• It's an event that the entire world remembers.
  
• Stephen Spielberg's name will draw people no matter how bad the movie is.

What's Going Wrong

• It's an event the entire world remembers, if you're in your 40's. Maybe.
• It's not a happy movie.
• The lack of big special effects that seem the staple of movies these days makes a strong script absolutely critical.
• The seventy-five million dollar budget is excessive.
• Really stupid time of the year to open a movie like this.
  

Results

Failure. A weak domestic showing for a story the US audience cares little about, coupled with a sad story released over Christmas means the producing studio won't be seeing a profit from this one.